The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double the current number of about 1,750.
The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently.
The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, significant risks remain. And reopening the economy will make matters worse.
“There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow,” the Centers for Disease Control warned.
The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways as the health care system was overloaded.
“While mitigation didn’t fail, I think it’s fair to say that it didn’t work as well as we expected,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, Mr. Trump’s former commissioner of food and drugs, said Sunday on the CBS program Face the Nation. “We expected that we would start seeing more significant declines in new cases and deaths around the nation at this point. And we’re just not seeing that.”
On Sunday, Mr. Trump said deaths in the United States could reach 100,000, twice as many as he had forecast just two weeks ago. But his new estimate still underestimates what his own administration is now predicting to be the total death toll by the end of May — much less in the months to come. It follows a pattern for Mr. Trump, who has frequently understated the impact of the disease.
“We’re going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people,” he said in a virtual town hall on Fox News on Sunday. “That’s a horrible thing. We shouldn’t lose one person over this.”
The White House responded that the new projections had not been vetted.
“This is not a White House document, nor has it been presented to the coronavirus task force or gone through interagency vetting,” said Judd Deere, a White House spokesman. “This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed.”
“The president’s phased guidelines to open up America again are a scientific-driven approach that the top health and infectious disease experts in the federal government agreed with,” he added.
After the new projections were reported on Monday, Dr. Gottlieb wrote on Twitter that a lingering threat from the virus would be “our new normal.”
“While the model’s assumptions are unclear, and therefore its estimates uncertain, we should expect cases to rise as we re-open aspects of economy,” he wrote.
Some states that have partially reopened are still seeing an increase in cases, including Iowa, Minnesota, Tennessee and Texas, according to Times data. Indiana, Kansas and Nebraska also are seeing an increase in cases and reopened some businesses on Monday. Alaska has also reopened and is seeing a small number of increasing cases.
While the country has stabilized, it has not really improved, as shown by data collected by The Times. Case and death numbers remain on a numbing, tragic plateau that is tilting only slightly downward.
At least 1,000 people with the virus, and sometimes more than 2,000, have died every day for the last month. On a near-daily basis, at least 25,000 new cases of the virus are being identified across the country. And even as New York City, New Orleans and Detroit have shown improvement, other urban centers, including Chicago and Los Angeles, are reporting steady growth in the number of cases.
The situation has devolved most significantly in parts of rural America that were largely spared in the early stages of the pandemic. As food processing facilities and prisons have emerged as some of the country’s largest case clusters, the counties that include Logansport, Ind., South Sioux City, Neb., and Marion, Ohio, have surpassed New York City in cases per capita.
Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. played traffic cop. Justice Clarence Thomas asked his first questions in more than a year. Justice Sonia Sotomayor disappeared for a few moments, apparently having failed to unmute her phone.
On the whole, the Supreme Court’s first argument held by telephone went smoothly, with the justices asking short bursts of quick questions, one by one, in order of seniority, as the world, also for the first time, listened in.
The argument Monday morning began with the traditional chant. “Oyez! Oyez! Oyez!” said Pamela Talkin, the marshal of the court. But that was almost the only traditional thing about it.
Chief Justice Roberts asked the first questions and then called on his colleagues. When lawyers gave extended answers, he cut them off and asked the next justice to ask questions.
The question before the court was whether an online hotel reservation company, Booking.com, may trademark its name. Generic terms cannot be trademarked, and all concerned agreed that “booking,” standing alone, is generic. The question for the justices was whether the addition of “.com” changed the analysis.
The court will hear 10 cases by phone over the next two weeks, including three on May 12 about subpoenas from prosecutors and Congress seeking President Trump’s financial records, which could yield a politically explosive decision this summer as the presidential campaign enters high gear.
The justices may not return to the bench in October if the virus is still a threat, as several of them are in the demographic group thought to be most at risk. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 87, and Justice Stephen G. Breyer is 81. Four additional members of the court — Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr. and Sonia Sotomayor — are 65 or older.
While the Supreme Court went remote, the top House Republicans pushed back on Monday against efforts by Democratic leaders to move the chamber toward remote legislating and teleworking during the pandemic.
With the House in an extended recess on the advice of Congress’s top doctor, Representative Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California and minority leader, and two of his deputies, urged caution on adopting new rules being proposed by Democrats to allow House members to vote by proxy from outside of Washington and committees to meet virtually.
The Senate, after weeks of sporadic meetings and curtailed operations, returned at 3 p.m. on Monday for the first time in a month to restart the process of confirming federal judges and Trump administration nominees, with new social distancing and other health precautions in place.
The cruise giant Carnival Corporation said on Monday that it planned to reopen cruising on eight of its ships before the end of the summer.
Carnival has canceled service on some of its lines through September, but it said it was planning to offer cruises from ports in Galveston, Texas; Miami; and Port Canaveral, Fla., as early as Aug. 1. Carnival has more than 100 ships across its various brands.
Carnival, the world’s largest cruise line, has been at the center of the coronavirus pandemic since the beginning, widely blamed for a series of major outbreaks that spread the disease across the world. Last week, Congress began investigating the company’s handling of the virus, asking it to turn over internal communications related to the pandemic.
In its statement on Monday, Carnival said that all North American cruises set to depart between June 27 and July 31 would be canceled.
“We will use this additional time to continue to engage experts, government officials and stakeholders on additional protocols and procedures to protect the health and safety of our guests, crew and the communities we serve,” the company said.
At least 30 percent of I.C.U. beds available.
At least 30 virus tests per 1,000 residents per month.
He said that some parts of the state would probably meet those thresholds a lot sooner than others. Some areas, including central New York and the sparsely populated North Country section of the state, are already meeting five of the seven requirements, he said.
New York City is meeting only three: Hospital deaths and new hospitalizations are declining steadily, and the city is conducting the appropriate number of tests each month.
The governor reported 226 more deaths in the state — the lowest one-day figure since March 28 and down more than 70 percent from early April, when nearly 800 people per day were dying of the virus. The number of hospitalized patients with the virus and the number of new admissions to hospitals also continued to fall, though much more gradually than they had increased.
Three people have been charged with murder in the shooting death of a security guard at a Family Dollar store in Flint, Mich., after a dispute with a customer whose daughter was not wearing a face mask in the store as required under a state order.
The Genesee County prosecutor, David Leyton, on Monday announced first-degree murder and weapons charges against the customer, along with her husband and son, who is accused of shooting the security guard, Calvin Munerlyn, on Friday afternoon.
According to the prosecutor, after Mr. Munerlyn told the customer, Sharmel Teague, that her daughter needed to wear a face mask inside the store, Ms. Teague yelled and spat at him, prompting the security guard to tell her to leave and instructing a cashier not to serve her.
Ms. Teague left the store and called her husband, Larry Teague, who returned to the store with her son, Ramonyea Travon Bishop, according to Mr. Layton. Mr. Bishop is accused of then shooting Mr. Munerlyn in the head.
Ms. Teague has been arrested, while Mr. Teague and Mr. Bishop are being sought by the police, according to the prosecutor.
Intelligence officials back Trump’s assertion that they downplayed the virus threat in January.
The intelligence agencies sought on Monday to back President Trump’s assertions that he was given only minimal warnings about the threat of the coronavirus early in the year, singling out their own lapses without noting that around the same time, scientists, public health officials and national security officials were sounding alarms.
Mr. Trump was first briefed by intelligence agencies about the novel coronavirus on Jan. 23, said Susan Miller, the spokeswoman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. But she acknowledged that the initial briefing downplayed its threat. Mr. Trump was “told that the good news was the virus did not appear that deadly,” Ms. Miller said. As the world has painfully learned, that assessment was wrong.
Ms. Miller’s statement came after weeks of Mr. Trump and administration officials railing at what they have called inaccurate accounts in the news media that intelligence agencies put multiple warnings about the virus in the president’s daily intelligence briefing. On Sunday, Mr. Trump said the intelligence agencies in January had told him the virus was “not a big deal.”
Though information about the virus in late January was imperfect, the warnings from other officials were stark enough to prompt the Trump administration to decide by the end of January to restrict travel from China.
Some intelligence officials have said that the pandemic’s spread has never been fundamentally an intelligence issue and that the warnings of scientists have always been far more important. When the warnings that intelligence agencies did give to officials were combined with what public health and bio-defense officials were learning, a clearer picture of a global threat emerged early.
They did not treat patients, but Wayne Edwards, Derik Braswell and Priscilla Carrow held some of the most vital jobs at Elmhurst Hospital Center in Queens.
The victims included the security guards watching over emergency rooms. They were the chefs who cooked food for patients. They assigned hospital beds and checked patients’ medical records. They greeted visitors and answered phones. They mopped the hallways and took out the garbage.
“You know how people clap for health workers at 7 o’clock? It’s mainly for the nurses and doctors. I get it. But people are not seeing the other parts of the hospital,” said Eneida Becote, whose husband died last month after working for two decades as a patient transporter. “I feel like those other employees are not focused upon as much.”
After a wave of reopenings over the weekend, at least six more states will begin allowing certain businesses to open back up on Monday, the latest expansion in economic activity despite rising coronavirus cases.
In Florida, restaurants, stores, museums and libraries are allowed to reopen with fewer customers, except in the most populous counties, which have seen a majority of the state’s cases. Restrictions on certain businesses or parts of the state were also lifted in Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and West Virginia.
About half of all states have now begun reopening their economies in some significant way, introducing a pivotal new chapter. Some states have lifted stay-at-home orders or reopened businesses even though reported new cases are rising or remaining steady. Public health experts have warned that reopening too soon could lead to a new wave of cases and deaths.
“The fact remains that the vast majority of Americans have not been exposed to the virus, there is not immunity, and the initial conditions that allowed this virus to spread really quickly across America haven’t really changed,” said Dr. Larry Chang, an infectious-diseases specialist at Johns Hopkins University.
Though businesses are almost universally reopening under restrictions, such as allowing fewer customers or enforcing social distancing, experts say it’s too soon to tell how much that will help stop the spread of the virus. “Reopening is not a one-way street,” Dr. Chang said. “If there is a surge in cases, you may need to clamp down again.”
As Florida’s stay-at-home order lifted, malls reopened to shoppers and restaurants welcomed back regular customers.
Officials in Miami Beach said Monday that they would again close a popular park after “not everyone followed the rules put in place” to curb the spread of the virus. According to the local authorities, park rangers at the city’s parks issued 7,329 warnings about face coverings and 478 concerning social distancing across Friday, Saturday and Sunday. But there were some signs on Monday that people were trying to keep their distance. Aerial footage over beaches showed people lounging in the sand, but largely adhering to social-distancing requirements. In Clearwater, Fla., some beachgoers even used seaweed to mark a six-feet barrier around them.
In Texas, just days after Gov. Greg Abbott lifted statewide restrictions that allowed many businesses across to reopen with limited occupancy, a federal task force was expected in Amarillo on Monday to combat an alarming surge of cases largely attributed to outbreaks in area meatpacking plants.
Mayor Ginger Nelson advised residents in a Facebook post that the federal team would be taking over coronavirus testing and investigations to assist state and county officials in an urgent response against rising coronavirus rates.
The F.D.A. says companies selling antibody tests must prove accuracy within 10 days.
The Food and Drug Administration announced on Monday that companies selling coronavirus antibody tests must submit data proving accuracy within the next 10 days or face removal from the market.
The antibody tests are an effort to detect whether a person had been infected with the virus, but results have been widely varied and little is known about whether those who became ill will develop immunity and, if so, for how long.
Since mid-March, the agency has permitted dozens of manufacturers to sell the tests without providing evidence that they are accurate — and many are wildly off the mark.
The F.D.A.’s action follows a report by more than 50 scientists, which found that only three out of 14 antibody tests gave consistently reliable results, and even the best had flaws. An evaluation by the National Institutes of Health has also found “a concerning number” of commercial tests that are performing poorly, the agency said.
Around the globe, government and health officials have hoped that antibody tests would be a critical tool to help determine when it would be safe to lift stay-at-home restrictions and reopen businesses. The highly infectious Covid-19 disease has now killed nearly 70,000 people and sickened more than 1.1 million in the United States alone.
While 11 companies have been given F.D.A. clearance to sell the antibody tests, many other products do not have agency authorization. The result has been a confusing landscape in which tests by established companies such as Abbott Laboratories, Cellex and most recently, Roche Diagnostics, are competing with unapproved tests made by unknown companies and sold by U.S. distributors with spotty track records.
In a statement on Monday, Dr. Anand Shah, the F.D.A. deputy commissioner for medical and scientific affairs, and Dr. Jeffrey Shuren, director of the Center for Devices and Radiological Health, defended the agency’s initial policy saying the tests were never intended to be used as the sole basis for determining whether anyone had been infected.
“We unfortunately see unscrupulous actors marketing fraudulent test kits and using the pandemic as an opportunity to take advantage of Americans’ anxiety,” they said in the statement. “Some test developers have falsely claimed their serology tests are F.D.A. approved or authorized. Others have false claimed that their tests can diagnose Covid-19 or that they are for at-home testing.”
Dr. Shah and Dr. Shuren also pointed to the N.I.H. evaluation that showed a number of tests producing faulty results. The F.D.A. declined to provide details on the number of tests that were studied, or how many did not work. They also said that the F.D.A. is reviewing more than 200 antibody tests to determine whether they work well enough to get the agency’s go-ahead.
Largely confined to their homes and worried about the spread of the virus and its risks to their own health or that of loved ones, a segment of the United States has turned informant, calling the police, public health authorities and the employers of people they believe are violating social-distancing decrees or stay-at-home orders.
These complaints have led to shut downs of dog groomers and massage parlors as well as citations and police scoldings to restaurant and bar owners whose patrons are lingering too close to one another.
The citizen action comes into direct conflict with new and mounting calls for the economy to reopen. In one instance, a Wisconsin doctor was photographed at a rally protesting a stay-at-home order, without a mask and arm-in-arm with a fellow demonstrator. The photo was shared on Facebook, and the doctor was suspended by his hospital for a week.
But such reporting also has occurred in more local ways, with neighborhood websites that once served as bulletin boards for lost cats or plumber recommendations now becoming social distancing complaint boxes.
And as Mr. Trump and many Republican governors aggressively push to reopen businesses and some Democratic officials call for continued restraint, the actions are sometimes becoming politicized.
Some liberals said they think that calling out violators is a civic duty and a matter of public health. But Vicki McKenna, a conservative talk radio host in Wisconsin who has promoted rallies resisting the state’s shutdown orders, likened the outing of social-distancing offenders to the actions of informants in a totalitarian state.
“There’s a creepy Orwellian sensibility people have,” she said.
All the roads into Gallup, N.M., a city on the edge of the Navajo Nation, are closed. The soldiers at the checkpoints have their orders: outsiders must turn around and drive away.
The threat of the coronavirus in Gallup became so serious last week that Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham invoked the state’s Riot Control Act to lock down the entire city. The downtown of shops, bars and Indian trading posts is now nearly deserted.
“We’re scared to death, so this had to be done,” said Amber Nez, 27, a shoe store saleswoman and Navajo Nation citizen who lives in Gallup. “I only wonder why we didn’t do this sooner.”
Gallup, a city of 22,000, serves as a regional hub for the Navajo and other nearby Native American pueblos. Many citizens of various tribal nations regularly drive into Gallup to buy food and other goods.
As of Sunday, the Gallup area had the third-highest rate of infection of any metropolitan area in the United States. Only the areas around New York City and Marion, Ohio, the site of a large prison cluster, had higher rates.
Housing for the homeless. Criminal justice reform. Addressing the digital divide for schoolchildren in rural areas.
Propelled by the urgency of the coronavirus crisis, and despite severe economic headwinds, liberal Californians see this moment as an opening to push through an agenda that addresses some of the state’s most intractable and long-debated problems.
Already, thousands of people have been let out of the state’s jails and prisons, cash bail has been eliminated for most crimes, thousands of homeless people now have roofs over their heads, and children in rural and poor areas of the state are being sent tens of thousands of laptop computers for distance learning — temporary measures to confront the pandemic that leaders are hoping will become durable solutions to longstanding problems of inequity.
While many in the country talk about returning to normal, a common refrain is emerging among California’s powerful political left wing and many liberal leaders across America: Normal wasn’t working.
“We are doing things today that should have been done a long time ago,” said George Gascon, a former San Francisco district attorney who is now running for the same office in Los Angeles, and who has been at the vanguard of a national movement of prosecutors looking to reduce mass incarceration. “The reset button was pushed, and I don’t see us coming back.”
An Amazon executive quit over the firings of employees who protested.
A vice president of Amazon’s cloud computing arm said on Monday that he had quit “in dismay” over the recent firings of workers who had raised questions about workplace safety during the coronavirus pandemic.
Tim Bray, an engineer who had been a vice president of Amazon Web Services, wrote in a blog post that his last day at the company was on Friday. He criticized a number of recent firings by Amazon, including that of an employee in a Staten Island warehouse, Christian Smalls, who had led a protest in March calling for the company to provide workers with more protections.
Mr. Bray, who had worked for the company for more than five years, called the fired workers whistle-blowers, and said that firing them was “evidence of a vein of toxicity running through the company culture.”
Amazon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Countries are taking steps to ease restrictions, and their neighbors are watching closely to see what happens.
At least 12 countries began easing restrictions on public life on Monday, as the world tried to figure out how to placate restless populations tired of being inside and reboot stalled economies without creating opportunities for the virus to re-emerge.
The steps, which include reopening schools and allowing airports to begin domestic service, offer the rest of the world a preview of how areas that have managed to blunt the toll might work toward resuming their pre-pandemic lives. They also serve as test cases for whether the countries can maintain their positive momentum through the reopenings, or if the desire for normalcy could place more people at risk.
Most of the countries easing their restrictions are in Europe, including Italy, one of the places where the virus hit earliest and hardest, leaving more than 28,000 dead. The country plans to reopen some airports to passengers.
In Lebanon, bars and restaurants will reopen, while Poland plans to allow patrons to return to hotels, museums and shops.
India allowed businesses, local transportation and activities like weddings to resume in areas with few or no known infections. Wedding ceremonies with fewer than 50 guests would be permitted and self-employed workers like maids and plumbers can return to work.
Reporting was contributed by Peter Baker, Brooks Barnes, Julian Barnes, Alan Blinder, Jonah Engel Bromwich, Michael Cooper, Caitlin Dickerson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Nicole Hong, Dan Levin, Adam Liptak, Patricia Mazzei, Sarah Mervosh, David Montgomery, Matt Richtel, Rick Rojas, Simon Romero, David Sanger, Marc Santora, Dionne Searcey, Michael D. Shear, Eileen Sullivan, Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Tracey Tully and Neil Vigdor.